Keys Stats for GA/FL

It's that time of the year again as Georgia gears up for it's annual matchup with Florida in Jacksonville. The winner of this game will more than likely determine the winner of the SEC East yet again, as it has each of the past two years. Both teams come into the matchup ranked in the top ten, making it the 3rd year in a row both teams are ranked as such. The 5th ranked Bulldogs look to capture their 4th win in a row against their hated eastern foe. As we are now less than 3 days from the highly anticipated matchup, let's take a look at some key statistics that I believe will determine the winner of the game.

1. Run the ball, stop the run: There's no doubt that the running game on both sides of the ball will determine this matchup. In the past 15 years of this rivalry, the team who has had more rushing yards has won the game. Yes, you read that correctly. It's been since 2005 (to put in perspective, Chris Leak was the QB at UF while Joe Tereshinski was at UGA) since the winner of this game HAS NOT also led the game in rushing. Plain and simple, if you are going to win this game you have to be able to run the ball AND stop the run. This is one of the areas where Georgia should have an advantage over the Gators. You can see that just based off of the games both teams have played so far this year. Through 5 games, Georgia runs for 175 yards per game (39th in FBS) while only allowing 80 yards (4th in FBS). This bodes well for Georgia as the numbers are kind of the opposite for Florida. On the other hand, Florida only averages 133 rushing yards per game (72rd in FBS) while also giving up around 133 yards per game (42 in FBS). This is a stat Kirby Smart has to be drooling over and constantly pounding into his teams head at practice this week. You already know that Kirby will always question the physicality of his team on a weekly basis. He always wants to win the LOS on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs were able to hold the Gators to 21 rushing yards on 19 attempts last year while running the ball themselves for 119 yards. Smart and company hope to do the same this year.

2. Turnovers: This category may be an obvious one for most football games but I personally find it to be very relevant for this year's Georgia-Florida matchup. The reason I say this is because the amount of turnovers in each of Georgia's first 5 games have been fairly high. This is true for both Georgia and it's opponents faced this year. Georgia has had two games this year with 5 combined turnovers (Arkansas, Tennessee) and one with 4 turnovers combined (Alabama). This is an unusual amount of turnovers and can be looked at both positive and negative for the Dawgs. Obviously, it's a positive if your defense is creating turnovers. The defense for the Dawgs has been able to "create havoc," as Kirby likes to say, forcing at least 1 turnover per game and 9 overall on the year. Georgia looks to continue that this week against Florida. On the flip side, the offense has been giving the ball away too much. Minus the Auburn game, the Dawgs have turned the ball over at least twice in every other game. Most of these turnovers have came from the QB position so take that as you want it. Regardless of how the turnovers have happened, the Dawgs have to figure out a way to hold onto the ball if they want to get anything rolling against the Gators on offense. It's also worth noting that the Gators have had at least one turnover in each of it's first 4 games with a total of 6 on the season. They have also forced at least one each game as well. I don't know if it's because of the short prep for the 2020 season, but turnovers have played a big part in both of these teams games this year. Look for the same to happen on Saturday.

3. Dan Mullen V. Kirby Smart: This has been a classic matchup for around the last decade or so. To be honest with you, I really just don't think these two like each other. Sure, they have a respect for one another but this rivalry has became way more intense in the last few years Yes, maybe part of that has to do with Florida being more competitive against Georgia than before but I really think it starts with the head coaches. When two head coaches seem to always have words for one another, it tends to intensify rivalries. There are always comments from both coaches that appear to be jabs at the other coach or program. Mullen has had several comments about Georgia in his short time at Florida. In one press conference last year, Mullen replied to a reporter saying "every blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while," talking about Georgia winning the East division. Mullen has also trolled Georgia's drought of a national championship when he posted the attendance of his spring game in 2019 saying there were 39,476 people. The joke was a subtle shot at the Georgia program because it's been 39 years since the last national championship and 476 games played in the mean time. It doesn't stop with Mullen though. Last year during the SEC Championship press conferences, Kirby was asked to give his opinion on Ed Orgeron. Kirby had high praises for coach O saying "in the coaching profession, everyone has respect for coach O." As Smart kept talking, this flipped to a short jab at Mullen. Kirby got to talking about his SEC meetings and having "F" (Florida) on his left and "L" (LSU) on his right. Smart said "It's definitely a big contrast," when talking about the differences in the head coaches. A small shot nonetheless but it seems there is always some sort of beef between the two. It began back when Kirby was the Defensive Coordinator at Alabama and Mullen was the Offensive Coordinator at Florida. It then transpired into a divisional matchup when Mullen was promoted to head coach at Mississippi State. They faced each other every year and the talk was always, "How will Mullen's offense fair against Kirby and the vaunted Alabama defense?" As long as these two face each other, that will always be the talk. Through the first 10 games between the two, I would say Kirby has all but proved his dominance against Mullen. In every matchup where Mullen and Kirby have faced as coaches, Mullen's offense's have yet to put up more than 20 points against a Kirby-led defense. Mullen has a 1-9 record against Smart when the coaches face-off (record includes them both as coordinators and head coaches). This is a very key stat to look at for both sides. One side may say "Kirby dominates Mullen and will continue to" while the other may say "Mullen is due." Either way, all eyes will be on the classic "Kirby's defense versus Mullen's offense" notion.

Pay attention to these numbers as Saturday gets closer. In my opinion, these statistics will have a big part in determining the winner of the Georgia-Florida matchup this year.

Image from: Bob Andres/ AJC

Bob Andres / AJC